Variance Tournoi Poker
Variance:The Bane of Every Poker Player's Life
The fact or quality of being different, divergent, or inconsistent”
People talk a lot about the concept of variance in tournament poker. The majority of the time, it's assumed that people are referring to the results of preflop all-in confrontations, but in reality, there are many more different kinds of tournament variance that should be taken into account when considering whether you're running 'good' or 'bad'.
- Well, I’m hoping this article will help answer that question and provide some much needed perspective on the topics of volume and variance. Amateur Poker Players vs. Pros Amateurs – For the purpose of this article, an amateur player is someone who plays about 1-3 times per week, usually at night.
- Another 40 games are given Variance Tournoi Poker upon deposit on the second day after the first deposit Variance Tournoi Poker (min £20), and an additional 40 games are given Variance Tournoi Poker upon deposit on the third day (min £20). Winnings won with games that require deposit, have to be wagered 35x.
- Variance in Heads Up Hyper Turbo Poker Tournaments As an example, above is a result graph from the last month when I played 121 heads up hyper turbo sit and go tournaments in one day. I played 1363 hands and I lost -$5500 (t-chips).
As soon as I first picked up the game back in 2005 it was obvious just how painful my relationship with luck was going to be if I ever wanted to play this game for a living. Looking back from today I really had no idea just how bad things could possibly get. Come to think of it, neither did the entire poker community!
My first poker experience came through online MTTs, and the standard advice back in the day was for professionals to have at least one hundred tournament buy ins in their bankroll. Little did we know that this was to prove way too cavalier. Especially as the games became tougher and tougher.
These days people are now more likely to suggest at least three hundred buy ins for tournaments, and at least fifty buy ins for NL cash games, with PLO needing even more. This is not conservative either, it's supposed to be a basic minimum.
I can say for certain now, as an eleven year veteran of the game that variance is still not understood by the vast majority of casual players. The main problem being that they are not able to play the volume required to ride through the swings in reasonable time, with a downswing lasting months,maybe years rather than weeks for cash game players. Recreational live tournament players will possibly not even manage to play enough over the rest of their lives to get any kind of an accurate understanding of just how good they are.
So how can we better understand the variance we can expect to experience?
What Does a Variance Calculator Do Exactly?
The calculator is a tool which can simulate millions of hands or tournaments, and scientifically show us the results from a best case scenario to the worst case.
It is never going to prove anything with one hundred percent certainty, but it will show us close enough to suit our purposes giving us an idea of just how much luck is involved, and what kind of time scale is involved to play through an average downswing.
By inputting various statistics from our database we will also be able to see over a particular sample size what percentage of the time we can expect to be in profit. Along with advice on required bankroll size to stay within a reasonable risk of ruin percentage.
In today's tougher games, much is being said about how the mental game side of poker is becoming more important to maximize your results.
The Cash Game Variance Calculator
The best application out there today looks to be here.
Let's take a look at how the cash game calculator works.
Here I want to use as an example a recreational player who works full time so only finds time for 25000 hands per month. This player has a decent win rate of 2.5BB/100. Not to be confused with BB/100 which is twice the BB/100 that you need to enter.
Here we can see some samples showing that even being a decent player, over a small sample size of 25000 hands there's still a fairly high chance of losing money.
There is also a report showing some useful metrics.
As we can see from all this data, 25000 hands for many casual players can take quite a long time to play, and even if they know they are decent enough to win well in the games they play in, there is still a high chance of being down money.
The Tournament Variance Calculator
The best application out there today looks to be here.
Even new players to the game who read about poker, and study the game to any extent will likely have heard about the extreme variance experienced by MTT players.
In this example our hero is a recreational player who finds time for 1500 tournaments in a year.
HisROI % is a healthy 35%, but nothing spectacular. He plays only $5 buy in events with an average of five thousand entrants. Each tournament pays out prizes to the top fifteen percent of finishers.
Variance Tournoi Poker Tournaments
Here we can see that there is roughly a twenty five percent chance that he will be down money at the year's end. Fifty percent of the time he can expect to have won more than $2285, with the worst case being a total loss of more than $3400.
Can you imagine what an unprepared casual player would be thinking if they had lost $3400? This is why we need to do this work away from the table.
Here is a random selection of twenty samples. As you can see there is still the possibility of going on a huge heater and making a nice profit. But there's no guarantees!
Similar to the cash game calculator we also get a detailed chart of statistical data.
Conclusion
In both examples we saw a competent player stand a fairly high chance of losing money over a single month,and over a full year.
Once you have experimented with different permutations you may even wish to change your game of choice. One point which stands out more than any other is how live poker players need the patience of a saint. They simply cannot look at poker in terms of months. Even for the professionals only hardcore cash game grinders can expect to feel a degree of certainty after a year's play. Live MTT players can expect a long wait, there just aren't enough days in the week.
For online players the long run can come around much sooner, but for those of you with jobs and family commitments it can still be a frustratingly long time before you see the fruits of your labor.
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Variance Describes The Natural Swings Of Fortune In Results Profits.
Here I Look At How This Works In Poker Tournaments And How To Hedge Against This!
When it comes to profiting from poker tournaments, one thing is for certain – your overall profits will come from a relatively small number of big wins. This is both a blessing and a curse. Your ability to turn a small buy-in into a huge payday, and to use that money to move to the next level is fantastic. At the same time, long dry spells – with a few small cashes between – can make it feel like your bankroll is bleeding away.
There are several ways in which poker players cope with the inherent variance of MTT play. This article covers several aspects, including psychological factors as well as more practical things such as bankroll management and game selection. Poker tournaments can be hugely profitable for skilled poker players – if you are disciplined enough to ride out the swings.
Variance Tournoi Poker Game
Variance In MTTs – A Bankroll That Can Withstand The Swings!
Bankroll management guidelines often seem crazy to new players, especially those who start with a good run of cards. Pro online tournament players have bankrolls of at least 200 times their 'average buy-in' – and sometimes arrangements with backers to top up if this is not enough.
Hopefully this is an eye opener for many readers. It illustrates that even the best players can go for long spells without a win. If you are going to make poker tournaments your main gain then I will recommend that you have between 50 and 100 buy-ins – even as a recreational player. This protects you somewhat from swings, if you lose half you can always drop down a level or two while you rebuild.
Variance In MTTs – Bigger Games = Higher Variance
If your bread and butter games are those huge field lower level MTTs at Pokerstars, with field sizes in the 1000's, then I recommend you balance this out and fast. With so much of the long-term profit coming from the final table, and such a long and dangerous path to get there you will need a lot of buy-ins to ensure that even a 200x bankroll survives.
Add some smaller games to your schedule, the 180 player SNGs at Pokerstars are a great option – or even enjoy the (far softer) tournaments on other sites. I recommend OnGame's cool Red Kings for this, they have a ton of guaranteed games and field sizes in the 100's instead of the 1000's!
Variance In MTTs – Can You Cope With A Downswing?
Here is a little test, if you have 3 losing nights in a row, do you start to feel pissed off with poker tournaments? Fed up with the suckouts and the donk play? If the answer is yes then poker tournaments might not be the right specialty for you to follow – the variance can go on for weeks or even months. Some players can ride these long dry spells out, knowing that they are making the right plays and that everything will even out in the end… most of us can not.
There are various ways of getting back on track, some SNGs or cash games… a change of site to start fresh for a while or even a break from poker. The key point I wanted to make here is that you need a plan, there is no shame in not being the kind of person who can happily grind though month-long downswing… it takes a unique kind of personality not to get despondant!
Variance In MTTs – Big Rewards For Those Who Crack It!?
If you can focus on play, ride out the swings and keep working on your game to stay ahead of the masses then poker tournaments can be massively profitable.
If you can combine this with some smart tournament selection, looking beyond the big 'obvious' sites at places like OnGame where the sports-betting players crossing into poker keep things super-soft – then there is no reason why you could not break through and make it as a pro.
I'm recommending the smaller field big-guarantees at Red Kings Poker – make sure you check them out for yourself!
Variance Tournoi Poker Rules
SNG250 = $250 Bonus, SNG500 = $500 Bonus, SNG1000 = $1000 Bonus